— The 2011 business forecast for Greater Johnstown is a “mixed bag,” two professors said Friday in their annual survey, though 917 hires are projected – up 49 percent from the 616 foreseen this year.

“This is the best news all day,” said professor John McGrath, turning to Page 20 – the 2011 Jobs Forecast – of the 2010 Regional Economic Climate Study before several hundred people at the Pasquerilla Conference Center.

Hiring is strong and that strength may be continuing, he said.

Professor Ron Vickroy – with McGrath, co-author of the report – said that, while layoffs often occur in chunks and garner news attention, “We pick up jobs in onesies and twosies.”

In fact, the latest local jobs figures – from September – show 200 more workers on the job in Cambria and Somerset counties over September 2009, 85,800 versus 85,600. Those numbers from the state Department of Labor & Industry were reported in The Tribune-Democrat on Nov. 1.

“Now, we’re more diversified and that helped to moderate things,” Vickroy said. He noted that, during the 1982 recession, the local unemployment rate was 17 percent – far above the current 9.3 percent seasonally adjusted.

McGrath issued a cautionary note, however, in that much of the hiring could be replacement hiring, putting on employees to fill the shoes of retirees or others who have left.

The large majority of job growth, 71 percent of all jobs, is expected to be in the blue collar area as opposed to white collar positions.

The service sector looks strongest, with 37 percent of job growth in that area. Manufacturing holds 20 percent of the growth and high-tech 18 percent.

On the downside, 33 percent of the 189 business respondents to the survey forecast revenue growth of 3 percent or greater in the coming year. That’s a shade down from 37 percent who had projected that for 2010.

High-tech firms are the most optimistic, with 60 percent projecting 3 percent or better profit growth in 2011. That compares with 21 percent seeing that in the services sector and 6 percent of manufacturers.

Wage scales are a good news/bad news thing for the businessmen and women of the Greater Johnstown/Cambria County Chamber of Commerce who responded to the survey.

More projected wage increases of 3 percent or more in 2011 than in 2010, 48 percent versus 45 percent. While the employees might like that, that money will come straight off the profit line.

Health care

U.S. Rep. Mark Critz told the gathering that “Health-care costs are the No. 1 critical issue.”

That was borne out by the survey of business leaders.

About a third of the 189 respondents named that as their most important legislative priority.

Nearly 20 percent said increasing business incentives was the next most important issue. Perhaps surprisingly, business leaders listed lower business taxes third.

Statewide, 68 percent of the business community – at least those represented by the Chamber of Commerce – opposed the new health-care reform law.

About 78 percent of businesses statewide said they provided health-care benefits in 2010, down from 84 percent in ’09.

It’s too soon to say whether employers will drop coverage and pay the fine established under federal law – or, for that matter, whether employers not providing coverage now will, faced with the prospect of fines.

“I think the businesses are sitting back to see what the big guys are going to do,” Vickroy said.

“I do not think we will see, quote/unquote, a repeal of health care,” he said. “I do think we will see tweaking.”

The UPJ marketing department survey boasted the strongest response rate, 24 percent, among the 783 chamber members since 2001.

The sampling error is plus or minus 7 percent.

The overall message of the 48-page survey is “cautiously optimistic,” Vickroy said.

The entire survey is at johns-townchamber.com.