— As a new year dawns, the region and the state are on the brink of a boom that likely will change the landscape –­ physically, economically and perhaps environmentally – for many for years to come.

It’s all about Marcellus Shale – the 400-million-year-old, dense, natural gas shale bed with the potential to supply an energy-thirsty nation for a generation or longer.

The more experts are learning, the greater the potential of the Marcellus Shale gas is becoming.

The most conservative position is that the Marcellus gas could meet energy needs for 20 years.

Those making more bold predictions say that, with the right technology, the shale could keep us going for the next century.

The wells pulling natural gas from the organically rich Marcellus Shale could be in operation for a century, depending on the technology, said Tom Murphy, co-director of Penn State’s Marcellus Center for Outreach and Research (MCOR).

“Some are saying the Marcellus wells could be productive for 200 years,” Murphy said.  

Combined natural gas reserves nationwide are said to have the energy equivalent of two Saudi Arabias, and could provide a substantial boost toward weaning the United States away from foreign oil.

The Marcellus reserves provide the greatest hope with today’s technology.

“We believe it may be one of the largest natural gas reserves in the world,” said Lisa Powers, Penn State director of communications.

Others take it a step further, calling Pennsylvania’s Marcellus Shale the single largest shale formation on the planet.

This new hope to move the nation toward energy independence runs through much of the Appalachian Basin, beginning in northern Kentucky and continuing north through parts of West Virginia and Maryland,

Marcellus has its tightest grip on Pennsylvania, where an estimated two thirds of the land mass – or 65 million acres – is underlaid with the black shale beds and the gas it has produced over eons of time.

The shale bed extends a bit into Ohio and moves under parts of the Great Lakes as it pushes into New York state.

A moratorium on the hydraulic fracturing process used to reach the Marcellus gas was imposed by the New York State Assembly a few years back and in late November was extended, likely postponing drilling there for six months. New York regulators are working to update drilling and operating standards.

Geologists say the shale bed along the basin can be as deep as 9,000 feet – nearly two miles underground – while the bed in the Cambria-Somerset region is closer to 7,000 feet deep.

The shale bed moves significantly closer to the surface as it reaches the most northern boundary and peeks through the surface at an outcropping in central New York state.

Marcellus, N.Y. – a town of 6,300 people located about three hours from Johnstown – has passed its name onto the massive shale bed and gas reserves.

‘We’re very fortunate’

The Marcellus gas is a big deal, and companies will continue to go after it, said Bill Brice, professor emeritus of geology and planetary sciences at Pitt-Johnstown.

“Geologists have known the gas was there for many, many years and technology is just catching up,” said Brice.

Brice is the author of “Myth, Legend, Reality – Edwin Laurentine Drake and the Early Oil Industry.”

He said that while there are plenty of environmental concerns related to Marcellus, people shouldn’t lose sight of the blessings Pennsylvania has under its earth.

“It’s strictly the luck of the draw and when it comes to geology,” Brice said.

“We’re very fortunate in Pennsylvania.”

The potential of the shale basin in meeting the nation’s energy can be difficult to grasp. Michael Arthur, a geologist and co-director of Penn State’s MCOR, said the estimates continue to change – and they continue to increase.

An estimate by Penn State geoscience professor Terry Englander is that the shale holds 1,200 trillion cubic feet of gas – with current technology allowing for retrieval of about 500 trillion cubic feet.

Offering some perspective, Arthur said the natural gas consumption nationwide is 24 trillion cubic feet annually.

And defining the monetary value of this resource is like trying to hit a moving target, Arthur said.

“If the price of natural gas falls to $3 per cubic foot, technically, it won’t pay to pull it out of the ground,” he said. “It’s now under $4 and dropping because of excessive supply.”

‘Companies can deal with regulation’

The rush to extract Marcellus gas is being compared with the gold rush that swept through the western United States more than 150 years ago.

Estimates are that 7 million acres of land are under lease in the 37 Pennsylvania counties related to Marcellus Shale, Murphy said.

The Independent Oil & Gas Producers of Pennsylvania says 75 drilling companies are active in the Marcellus basin statewide.

The natural gas in the Marcellus Shale bed has been a known element for years and some form of hydraulic shale-bed fracturing has been around for a half-century. But the process was recently developed to the point that it can be used at depths necessary to reach the Marcellus beds, said Lou D’Amico, executive director of the gas-producers group.

Along with a change in leadership at the state level – including incoming Republican Gov. Tom Corbett and a Republican-controlled legislature – a change in the economic landscape likely will be on the horizon, D’Amico said.

But don’t look for a relaxing of regulations.

“As far as regulations are concerned, that won’t change,” D’Amico said.

“But I think the leadership will be more open to talking about any change when it’s needed.”

The controversial Marcellus severance tax rejected in October for lack of state Senate support remains an unknown, with Corbett vowing to oppose any new tax initiatives.

State Rep. Carl Metzger, R-Berlin, said it’s time for the state to take a conservative, intelligent approach to continue to make Pennsylvania business-friendly.

“Companies can deal with regulation as along as they know where they stand,” Metzger said.

Jobs have to be a priority as Pennsylvania attempts to rebound from the recession, said state Rep. Bryan Barbin, D-Johnstown.

“People are waiting to hear that the burden on business won’t increase,” Barbin said. “I’m in favor of getting the regulations done first. If there is going to be a severance tax, it has to be done reasonably.”

‘Significant economic development’

Many Pennsylvania residents say they are worried about the potential environmental impact as the number of drilling rigs increase.

No one can predict the long-term effect on water, deforestation and well pads – all concerns expressed by the environmental advocacy group PennFuture.

Growth has been rapid.

In 2007, the state Department of Environmental Protection’s Bureau of Oil and Gas Management reported there were 27 wells drilled into the Marcellus Shale bed.

The bureau reported 1,177 Marcellus wells drilled during the first 10 months of 2010, and 2,959 permits had been issued by Nov. 1.

The number of drilling rigs operating across the state has increased by 415 percent over the rate of early 2009, said Jim Ladlee, director of special initiatives for the Marcellus Shale Education and Training Center at Penn State.

Marcellus, the drilling, the environmental impact and the economic impact generate varied opinions, said Larry Michael, executive director of workforce and economic development at Penn College, Williamsport.

Michael said viewpoints on Marcellus range from “it’s a godsend” and “it’s risky, but manageable” to “it’s out of control.”

“Marcellus Shale has the potential of being the single largest impact of anything we will encounter in our lifetime,” he said.

Daniel Obara, president of Westmoreland County Community College, takes the importance of Marcellus a step further.

“It is the most significant economic development in the first half of this century,” Obara said.

‘Public discourse is good’

Opponents point to the drilling process, earth disturbance and the use of massive amounts of water needed to tap into the gas.

They would replace a few of Obara’s words to say it is the most significant potential environmental disaster in the first half of the century.

“We’re where we were 100 years ago with the coal mines, and now we have 2,700 streams polluted with acid mine drainage in the state,” said Dennis Beck, chairman of the Water Resources and Watershed Development Committee of the Cambria County Conservation District.

“The gas drilling is just getting started in Cambria County and so far the impetus has pretty much been to just do nothing,” he said. “That’s where we were 100 years ago.”

State regulations and public involvement were virtually nonexistent a century ago, said Robb Piper, manager of the Cambria County conservation district.

“We were fighting two world wars at the time the coal mines were operating,” he said. “We had no regulatory agencies. This drilling is being done as part of the regulatory community, which we didn’t have back then.”

Arthur maintains that with adequate regulations, citizens that pay attention and get involved and responsible drilling companies, the end tale on Marcellus Shale can be a good one.

“I think it can be done,” he said.

“Public pressure is important. It makes state governments and industry responsible.”

Knowing someone is watching makes people more careful, he said.

“They (drilling companies) don’t want to make a mistake,” Arthur said.

“Public discourse is good.”

Edward Englehart, manager of Highland Sewer and Water Authority of Richland Township, said his organization believes that “extraction of Marcellus Shale gas and public water supply can coexist as long as the proper safeguards are observed.”