The 12th Congressional District snakes through nine counties across southwestern Pennsylvania, winding around major highways, dipping into and away from population centers and even slicing through municipalities.

If there is one constant in U.S. Rep. John Murtha’s unwieldy district, it is a heavy Democratic voter-registration edge.

But this year, with Murtha having become a lightning rod for the emotional Iraq war debate, voters’ opinions on the veteran congressman are nearly as fragmented as the district’s geography.

Standing on High Street in Waynesburg, Greene County – a Democratic stronghold – Mae Richardson left no doubt that she will vote Republican on Nov. 7.

“I think we should be (in Iraq). I’d rather fight them over there than here,” said Richardson, who has had three of her children serve in the military. “Sometimes, I think (Murtha) should just keep his mouth shut.”

With Republican challenger Diana Irey capitalizing on Murtha’s calls for a troop withdrawal from Iraq, there are two big questions in this campaign.

How many Democrats will turn against Murtha? And will that number be high enough, especially on Irey’s home turf, to make a significant difference in a district designed to resemble a sprawling Democratic fortress?

Murtha did not draw the current boundaries of his district.

That was handled by the state’s Republican-controlled legislature, which in 2002 implemented a controversial redistricting plan in the wake of the U.S. census two years earlier.

Murtha lost portions of Cambria and Somerset counties to U.S. Rep. Bill Shuster, R-Hollidaysburg. Among areas the 12th district gained were part of Washington County and all of Greene County on the Pennsylvania-West Virginia border.

That move brought ire from state Democratic leaders, who at the time labeled the new 12th Congressional District an “upside-down Chinese dragon,” a “supine sea horse” and an “obscenity of the first magnitude.”

And it also meant Murtha would have to face then-U.S. Rep. Frank Mascara, a fellow Democrat who was based in Washington County. The winner would inherit a messy but politically united district, and the loser would have to retire.

Murtha, a congressional heavyweight who wields enormous power on a House subcommittee that controls defense spending, cruised to victory in the 2002 primary.

Mascara’s former office still sits vacant in downtown Washington.

Murtha faced no competition in the general election that year and ran unopposed in 2004, continuing to work relatively quietly and bring home the bacon for his newly expanded district.

But that comfortable climate changed 11 months ago, when Murtha first went public with his opinions on Iraq.

The congressman since has regularly bashed the Bush administration and has repeatedly said that the war cannot be won militarily.

Murtha gained national media attention, and his statements accusing U.S. Marines of a massacre in Haditha, Iraq, only added fuel to the fire.

David Sorice owns a bar and restaurant supply store in Washington, Pa., and he said he takes issue with Murtha “coming out and accusing the troops before any investigation was done.

“Until there’s a full investigation, I don’t think he should have said anything,” Sorice said as he worked in his South Main Street business.

There is no doubt that Iraq is the dominant issue in the Murtha-Irey race.

When asked about the campaign, many voters begin talking about the war without any prompting.

That includes Murtha’s many supporters – even those living in Irey’s county.

“The man’s been in office a long time, and he’s somebody who spent time in the service,” said Washington resident James Richard Strawn as he sat with friends at Washington Crown Center mall.

Strawn scoffed at those who have questioned Murtha’s patriotism.

“I don’t understand that,” he said.

‘Name recognition’

Strawn is one of more than 254,000 Democrats in Murtha’s territory. Democrats outnumber Republicans by more than a 2-to-1 margin, and make up about 63 percent of all voters in the 12th district.

To combat those seemingly overwhelming numbers, some GOP leaders cite Irey’s influence in the western part of the district.

Irey was 11 years old when Murtha first took office. But she has served as a Washington County commissioner since 1995, while Murtha has represented that area only since 2002.

“She’s very popular in Washington County,” said Bonnie West, who chairs that county’s Republican party.

Greene County GOP Chairman Richard Yeager agrees, noting that many residents there read the Washington newspaper and see Irey’s name regularly.

“Her name recognition is very high,” Yeager said. “I don’t think they’re that familiar with (Murtha). He’s not a household name.”

At his Washington business, Sorice can cite positive experiences with Irey.

“She’s somebody that, if you have a problem, she’s going to do everything she can to help you,” Sorice said. “(With Irey) being a county commissioner, you see her at every major function around here.”

Some Republicans also point hopefully to the district’s many conservative-leaning Democrats. President Bush won Democrat-dominated Cambria County in 2004 and also took Greene County, where voters had not favored a Republican presidential candidate in a half-century.

“We did it strictly with a grassroots effort,” Yeager said, adding that GOP leaders are seeing the same kind of movement in Irey’s campaign.

“I feel optimistic because the people are out there working,” he said.

It also is clear that Irey has gained momentum from people who, while they may or may not be inspired by the Republican candidate’s speeches, are angered by Murtha’s Iraq stance.

“When he opens his mouth, the phones ring off the hook,” West said. “People want to donate to Diana Irey’s campaign.”

Numbers game

But even on the Washington County commissioners’ board, Irey is the sole Republican – which points again to her party’s minority status.

Some Democrats scowl when asked whether Washington is “Irey territory.”

“I wouldn’t vote for Irey no matter what she ran for,” Strawn said.

Ditto for Patty King of Waynesburg, who recently attended a Murtha speech but says she never has met Irey.

“I really think (Murtha) is concerned about our troops in Iraq,” King said.

Milan Marinkovich, Washington County Democratic chairman, said Murtha has stopped in his area many times. Marinkovich predicts an easy victory for the congressman.

He sounds just as confident as his Democratic counterparts in Cambria County.

“Murtha has done a lot for the area,” Marinkovich said. “I just cannot see the public going against Murtha.”

Ray Wrabley, who teaches political science at the University of Pittsburgh at Johnstown, says the 12th district’s voter-registration numbers do not lie. Irey has a “daunting task,” he said.

“She’s got to hold all the Republicans and then get Democratic crossovers,” Wrabley said, adding that garnering every GOP vote is far from a given in the eastern portions of the district, where Murtha is much more entrenched.

In fact, even if she grabbed every Republican vote, numbers from a state GOP database show that Irey could sway 60,000 Democratic votes and still lose.

“I think the odds of her picking up any significant Democratic votes are pretty low,” Wrabley said.

Furthermore, Wrabley said some of the buzz about the campaign has come nationally from powerful people who may have political influence but cannot cast a single vote in Murtha’s district.

Those in Irey’s camp are fully aware of the odds that they face.

“She’s a dark horse. You can’t think of her as anything else,” Greene County’s Yeager said.

“But she’s making a serious effort, and (Murtha) has done a lot of damage to himself.”