JOHNSTOWN — In a region that has struggled economically for so long, the latest jobs forecast may come as a shock.

Officials expect that, within a few years, they will be forced to recruit workers from outside the area to fill jobs right here in the Flood City.

The reason is simple: There are not enough local graduates who are properly prepared to take those positions.

“The biggest challenge we have is informing parents and students of the job opportunities we have here,” said Debi Balog, workforce development director at Johnstown Area Regional Industries.

“The old statement – ‘There are no jobs here’ – that’s just not true.”

Those who are launching a new youth-mentoring program called the “Great Conemaugh Valley Intervention Plan” believe their efforts could help address that issue.

They see a combination of problems: A large percentage of low-income families, a higher-than-average dropout rate and a lower-than-average pursuit of post-secondary education.

That mixture may be leading hundreds of local students toward a dead end, said Mike Kane, executive director of the Community Foundation for the Alleghenies.

“Those kids aren’t adding to the work force,” Kane said. “We know there are people who don’t have the basic skills needed to get to that next step – job training.”

In Greater Johnstown School District, for example, little more than half of all graduates said they were pursuing some sort of higher learning at the end of the 2007-08 school year.

And in Cambria County as a whole, only 27 percent of all residents age 25 or older have obtained an associate, bachelor’s, graduate or professional degree.

Officials say that’s just not enough.

“We need to inform students about the importance of some sort of post-secondary learning,” Balog said.

Many who possess only high-school degrees likely are headed for minimum-wage jobs with few or no benefits, Balog said.

By continuing their education, she said, “they have a much better chance of earning a family sustaining wage.”

Higher education, Balog added, does not necessarily mean a four-year college. Teens could pursue an associate degree or attend a technical school, for example.

In an attempt to address the situation, JARI coordinates a “business and education consortium” that brings together education officials with business leaders.

“The purpose is to look at recruitment, training and retention, as well as our work force going forward,” Balog said.

Mentoring advocates believe that their new program could further that effort by connecting directly with kids long before they graduate.

Along with teaching social skills, adult mentors could help students realize the value of education.

If it works, Kane said, the social and economic effect could be felt well beyond city ZIP codes.

“This is our community’s problem, and we want our community to respond,” Kane said. “It needs to be solved by everyone, and everyone will benefit.”



Dropouts

Dropout rates in the 2007-08 school year, for three school districts in the area of a new youth mentoring effort:

• Conemaugh Valley School District:

Number of students grades 7-12: 427

Dropouts: 3

Dropout rate: 0.7 percent

• Ferndale Area School District

Number of students grades 7-12: 385

Dropouts: 1

Dropout rate: 0.3 percent

• Greater Johnstown School District:

Number of students in grades 7-12: 1,419

Dropouts: 36

Dropout rate: 2.5 percent

• Cambria County:

Number of students grades 7-12: 8,981

Dropouts: 99

Dropout rate: 1.1 percent

• Pennsylvania:

Number of students grades 7-12: 830,257

Dropouts: 14,408

Dropout rate: 1.7 percent

* Note: A dropout is defined as a student who, for any reason other than death, leaves school before graduation without transferring to another school.

Source: Pennsylvania Department of Education.



Advanced learning

High-school graduates who planned to pursue post-secondary education, 2007-08 school year:

* Pennsylvania:

Graduates: 130,296

Post-secondary bound: 97,711 (75 percent)

* Cambria County:

Graduates: 1,491

Post-secondary bound: 1,036 (69.5 percent)

* District-by-district in Cambria County (in order of least to most students pursuing post-secondary education):

Greater Johnstown: 212 graduates, 114 post-secondary bound (53.8 percent)

Penn Cambria: 168 graduates, 98 post-secondary bound (58.3 percent)

Ferndale Area: 56 graduates, 34 post-secondary bound (60.7 percent)

Northern Cambria: 98 graduates, 60 post-secondary bound (61.2 percent)

Conemaugh Valley: 64 graduates, 43 post-secondary bound (67.2 percent)

Forest Hills: 230 graduates, 163 post-secondary bound (70.9 percent)

Central Cambria: 158 graduates, 113 post-secondary bound (71.5 percent)

Portage Area: 68 graduates, 49 post-secondary bound (72.1 percent)

Cambria Heights: 110 graduates, 81 post-secondary bound (73.6 percent)

Blacklick Valley: 46 graduates, 35 post-secondary bound (76.1 percent)

Richland: 134 graduates, 117 post-secondary bound (87.3 percent)

Westmont Hilltop: 147 graduates, 129 post-secondary bound (87.8 percent)

* Note: Post-secondary education includes two- and four-year colleges and universities; specialized associate degree-granting institutions; nondegree-granting post-secondary schools.

Source: Pennsylvania Department of Education.



Income levels

Number of students from low-income families, 2008-09 school year:

• Greater Johnstown School District:

Students: 3,173

Low-income: 2,339 (73.7 percent)

• Greater Johnstown, Conemaugh Valley and Ferndale Area schools:

Students: 5,006

Low-income: 3,222 (64.4 percent)

• All Cambria County school districts:

Students: 18,308

Low income: 7,658 (41.8 percent)

• All Pennsylvania schools:

Students: 1.8 million

Low income: 656,904 (36.1 percent)

School-by-school breakdown in “Conemaugh Valley” area:

• Conemaugh Valley School District:

Elementary: 343 students; 156 low income (45.5 percent)

East Taylor Elementary: 207 students; 101 low income (48.8 percent)

Junior-Senior High: 429 students; 162 low income (37.8 percent)

• Ferndale Area School District:

Elementary: 450 students; 270 low income (60 percent)

Junior-Senior High: 404 students; 194 low income (48 percent)

• Greater Johnstown School District:

East Side Elementary: 756 students; 614 low income (81.2 percent)

West Side Elementary: 794 students; 633 low income (79.7 percent)

Middle School: 617 students; 458 low income (74.2 percent)

High School: 1,006 students; 634 low income (63 percent)

* Note: “Low income” means students who qualified for free or reduced-price meals. In 2008-09, a child from a family of four that earned $39,220 or less could receive a reduced-price lunch. The free-lunch earnings threshold for a family of four was $27,560 or less.

Source: Pennsylvania Department of Education.