The Tribune Democrat, Johnstown, PA

January 2, 2010

Staying vigilant: Health officials expect third wave of H1N1 influenza

By RANDY GRIFFITH

JOHNSTOWN — Although the autumn outbreak of pandemic H1N1 influenza has subsided, health officials say it is too early for the public to drop its guard.

“We do anticipate that there will be a third wave,” state Health Department spokeswoman Stacy Kriedeman said. “We don’t know when that third wave will happen. It could be late winter or early spring.”

First identified in Mexico in March, the so-called swine flu swept over the United States through the spring.

After a relatively dormant summer, the virus re-emerged with a vengeance in September and October.

Symptoms are almost identical to seasonal flu, characterized mainly by fever, cough, respiratory symptoms and aches. But the H1N1 flu emerged just as the seasonal flu season traditionally ends in the spring, and it seems to be tapering off just when the seasonal flu normally appears.

Swine flu’s patient population also has been unusual. For the most part, patients haven’t been as sick as they would expect to be with seasonal flu, which kills about 30,000 people every year, Dr. Louis Schenfeld, infectious disease specialist, said from Memorial Medical Center in Johnstown.

And while the seasonal flu hits the older population, a significant number of children and pregnant women have become seriously ill with the swine flu.

In fact, while just 1,630 deaths this year have been associated with the swine flu, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention says 285 of them were children.

That’s why flu shots are so important, Kriedeman said, announcing the Health Department’s first round of flu shot clinics for the general population.

“It is still very important for people to be vaccinated,” Kriedeman said. “We may still see activity after the holiday.”

Four million doses of H1N1 vaccine have been made available to Pennsylvania, but all of the previous clinics were directed to at-risk populations that include children, pregnant women, health-care workers and those with underlying health problems.

Free H1N1 flu shots will be given from 8 a.m. to 4 p.m. Friday and Saturday at 33 locations around the state, Kriedeman said. Preregistration is required by calling (877) PA HEALTH, or online at www.h1n1inpa.com.

Local clinics are scheduled in the Georgian Place shopping complex in Somerset and at Zink Hall on the IUP campus, 1190 Maple Ave., Indiana.

Because Cambria and Blair counties hosted previous clinics for the high-risk patients, the Health Department decided to use different locations this time, said Ron Springer, Cambria County Emergency Management Director.

“We will participate in the one with Indiana County and Armstrong County at the Indiana University campus,” Springer said.

Cambria County residents can register for whichever clinic is most convenient, he added.

The Emergency Management office has received its own supply of H1N1 flu shots and will be continuing its in-school vaccination program when classes resume, Springer said.

“We finally got our major shipment in,” Springer said. “I have three schools already scheduled and I have to schedule two more.”

Meanwhile, health officials are pondering the late arrival of this year’s seasonal flu.

“We would expect to see flu activity by now, but we really haven’t,” Kriedeman said. “We haven’t had any seasonal flu. There are a lot of stories, but nobody really knows why seasonal flu has not been seen.”

Because H1N1 is basically a varied strain of the seasonal Type A influenza, some authorities wonder if there will be much seasonal flu this year.

“Many think H1N1 will replace the seasonal flu strain,” Kriedeman said.

Schenfeld is not so sure.

“Christmas is still on the early side,” Schenfeld said, explaining that seasonal flu sometimes does not peak until February or March.